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The potential impact of Brexit on Ireland's demand for shipping services to continental Europe

Vega, Amaya; Feo-Valero, Maria; Espino-Espino, Raquel

Transport policy. Volume 71 (2018); pp 1-13 -- Elsevier

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  • Title:
    The potential impact of Brexit on Ireland's demand for shipping services to continental Europe
  • Author: Vega, Amaya;
    Feo-Valero, Maria;
    Espino-Espino, Raquel
  • Found In: Transport policy. Volume 71 (2018); pp 1-13
  • Journal Title: Transport policy
  • Subjects: Transportation and state--Periodicals; Transportation--Rates--Periodicals; Freight transport demand analysis--State preference methods--Discrete choice models--Brexit; Dewey: 388
  • Rights: legaldeposit
  • Publication Details: Elsevier
  • Abstract: Abstract:

    Ireland, as an island nation, has historically relied on the UK landbridge to export and import its goods to and from Europe. This provides a fast, reliable and secure service along the UK landbridge route relative to the more economical and less frequent direct continental route. However, the relative competitiveness of maritime services along both routes may be significantly influenced by the UK exit from the European Union or Brexit. This paper aims to understand the potential impact of Brexit on maritime freight transport demand from Ireland to continental Europe for export trade shipments. Based on data collected from an efficient stated preference (SP) experiment, discrete choice models that allow for non-compensatory behaviour are estimated. Results from a range of likely variations in the level of service of the UK landbridge route following Brexit suggest that the probability of using the direct continental route is likely to increase by up to a 14% with respect to its current level.

    Highlights:

    Analysis of the likely impact of Brexit on Irish freight maritime transport demand.

    Data collected from an efficient stated preference (SP) experiment.

    Models estimated allowing for compensatory and non-compensatory behaviour.

    Cost increases along the UK landbridge route have the largest impact.

    Percentage of consignments that suffer delays is a key determinant of route choice.


  • Identifier: System Number: LDEAvdc_100069490322.0x000001; Journal ISSN: 0967-070X; 10.1016/j.tranpol.2018.07.005
  • Publication Date: 2018
  • Physical Description: Electronic
  • Shelfmark(s): ELD Digital store

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